SGA Expansion Index

One standardized score across every expansion, de-novo, acquisition & op-add — capacity, market, deal-return & drive-time in one place. Concept · data 2026-06-29

Unit

Ranked opportunities

Sequenced Expansion Index = (w_CP·Capacity + w_MS·Market + w_DQ·Deal) × speed multiplier. Drag the weights to re-rank live. Click any row for the full record.

Capacity 40

Market 30

Deal 30

#	Practice	Market	Type	Index	Cap	Mkt	Deal	Tier / Gates

Capacity pressure — demand vs capacity

Long lead time + rising new-patient flow + ready ops = expand. Bars = days-to-schedule (48d ≈ capacity wall); line = new patients / month.

Top capacity-pressure offices

Highest Capacity-Pressure sub-score.

Auto-flagged recommendations

Model-emitted signals from the capacity engine.

Drive-time & cannibalization

Marker color = Expansion Index. Ring = catchment. A red halo flags offices with another SGA site inside a 15-min drive (overlap → a new op steals share).

Drive-time overlap (nbr15) is real — ORS 15-min isochrones from the catchment map (249 practices). Catchment population is Census-anchored (payor-coverage engine).

Highest-overlap markets

Dental shortage — unmet-demand opportunity estimate

HRSA Dental HPSA score (0–26): higher = more underserved = more unmet demand. Used as an opportunity signal (an underserved, growing, payable market is a de-novo target).

Values shown are modeled estimates from RUCA class + catchment size. Live wire (Phase 2): data.hrsa.gov Dental HPSA flat file (HPSA_Score) joined on county FIPS — the FIPS join key already exists per office.

Market ability-to-pay income = estimate

Median household income vs catchment population per market. Bars = income; line = catchment population.

Market mix

Real Census-anchored catchment + RUCA class.

Catchment population & RUCA rural/urban class are real (payor-coverage, Census-anchored). Income is a modeled estimate — live wire: api.census.gov ACS B19013_001E by county FIPS. Add-on signals ready to wire: population growth (PEP), in-migration quality (IRS SOI), age cohorts (ACS), uninsured rate (SAHIE), diabetes prevalence (USDA).

Return vs capital

Incremental EBITDA against project cost. Bars = incremental EBITDA; line = project cost.

Deal-quality leaders

Return, payback & margin composite.

IRR clusters near ~50% across the pipeline, so it can't rank on its own — Deal Quality blends incremental EBITDA, a payback proxy (cost ÷ incremental EBITDA), project cost, EBITDA margin & revenue trajectory. Phase 3: snapshot each project's modeled index at approval, then track modeled-vs-actual (the IPO governance artifact).

Pipeline by priority tier

Sequenced ranking → Now (2026) / 2027 / 2028-TBD, with gated projects held for an operational or feasibility fix.

How the Expansion Index works

Replaces gut calls with a standardized, data-driven score; every deviation from the model becomes explicit and explainable.

The score

EIS = 0.40·Capacity Pressure + 0.30·Market Strength + 0.30·Deal Quality, then × a sequencing multiplier (lowest-hanging fruit beats big builds), with hard gates that can hold any project.

Capacity Pressure — do they NEED it?

Days-to-schedule (48d ≈ wall), new-patients/mo + trajectory, recare %, plumbed-but-unused ops, doctor & hygiene production/day. The dominant lens in the room.

Market Strength — does the GEOGRAPHY support it?

Catchment population, RUCA class, drive-time overlap (nbr15), income, dental-shortage (HPSA), dentist competition density. Fuses the drive-time analysis with public market data.

Deal Quality — does it PENCIL?

Incremental EBITDA, payback, project cost, margin, revenue trajectory. Counts true incremental capacity only — a replacement/relocated doctor is not added production.

Hard gates

Cost-to-pencil · fix-ops-before-capital · doctor flight-risk · permit timeline · lease window · incremental-only · doc-without-hygiene imbalance.

Data sources

SGA Expansion Index — concept build. Capacity & financials: West expansion tracker (PBI + Dental Intel + QoE). Drive-time overlap: ORS catchment map. Catchment population & FIPS: payor-coverage engine (Census-anchored). Income / HPSA / competition: modeled estimates pending Phase-2 live wire (endpoints in Method). Phase A — aggregate data only, no PHI.